Chapters
Optional deep dive D6
How to read historical data (optional)
What does a performance record actually establish? Check what was measured, what the investor received, which evidence was available and how the winning rule was chosen.
- Read the period, market and currency firstInspect H-4’s invented accounts, exact dates and expense scope, then follow its dollar gain into euros and purchasing power.Read
With H-4 defined, finish the same fictional record after the owner’s charge and price-basket adjustment.
- Compare the returns an investor could have receivedFinish H-4’s nominal and real owner result, then distinguish income, expense layers and external contributions.Read
Correct accounting still leaves the question of what was omitted.
- Count the investments that disappearedKeep closed funds in the original set and place each release on the date it became available.Read
With the original evidence restored, examine which interval was selected.
- See how the chosen dates change the storyMove the start on one record, then see how rolling windows reuse the same observations.Read
Dates can shape a headline; repeated trials can also shape the rule itself.
- When a backtest has learned the past too wellFollow a chosen candidate into later evidence and see when that evidence becomes part of rule selection.Read
H-4 teaches inspection and calculation; its invented numbers establish no historical performance. A real record can help identify experiences to prepare for. The next optional section applies that caution to withdrawals, where spending changes the capital left to recover.
Optional deep dive: Withdrawals and the long life of capital (optional)